Interactive Valuation Charts
Three complementary lenses on S&P 500 valuations. Use the range buttons (1Y/3Y/5Y/MAX), drag-to-zoom, and the slider to explore history.
Valuation vs. balance sheets
S&P 500 Price-to-Book (Monthly; price × quarterly book value)
Percentiles compare today to the full history of this series.“Top decile” = higher than 90% of all past monthly values;“Top quartile” ≥ 75%;“Median” ≈ the 50th percentile;“Bottom decile” ≤ 10%.Badges are computed from the entire visible series, not just the zoomed window.
TL;DR
How many dollars investors pay for each dollar of net assets (shareholders’ equity). High = rich vs. book value.
Intuition
When optimism is high, the market prices future profitability and intangibles more aggressively, pushing P/B up. When risk aversion rises, P/B compresses toward historical norms.
Technical
P/B = index level ÷ aggregate book value per share. We align daily/monthly prices to quarterly book value by forward-filling the latest reported BPS into each month.
What to watch
- New highs vs. the 2000 dot-com peak indicate stretched balance-sheet valuations.
- Regimes: rising P/B during easing cycles or AI-productivity narratives; falling P/B during credit stress.
- Divergences with Forward P/E (e.g., P/B up while Forward P/E is flat) can hint at accounting or sector-mix effects.
Valuation vs. expected earnings
S&P 500 Forward 12M P/E (Monthly)
Percentiles compare today to the full history of this series.“Top decile” = higher than 90% of all past monthly values;“Top quartile” ≥ 75%;“Median” ≈ the 50th percentile;“Bottom decile” ≤ 10%.Badges are computed from the entire visible series, not just the zoomed window.
TL;DR
Price relative to the next 12 months of consensus earnings. High = investors expect strong future profits (or accept lower yields).
Intuition
Forward P/E moves with narratives about growth, margins, rates, and AI/productivity. Spikes often occur when prices rise faster than estimates—or when estimates are cut sharply.
Technical
Forward P/E = Price ÷ Forward EPS. We monthly-align prices and forward-fill the latest quarterly forward EPS (Refinitiv/FactSet/Yardeni-style series). If forward EPS is unavailable, we fall back to reported forward P/E where provided.
What to watch
- Ex-2020 spike: is today’s level near the late-1990s or 2021? That’s bubble-watch territory.
- Earnings revisions: rising estimates with steady multiples are healthier than multiple expansion alone.
- Rate sensitivity: higher real yields usually compress forward multiples.
Cycle-aware valuation
Shiller CAPE (Monthly)
Percentiles compare today to the full history of this series.“Top decile” = higher than 90% of all past monthly values;“Top quartile” ≥ 75%;“Median” ≈ the 50th percentile;“Bottom decile” ≤ 10%.Badges are computed from the entire visible series, not just the zoomed window.
TL;DR
Price divided by the 10-year average of real (inflation-adjusted) earnings—smooths the business cycle.
Intuition
CAPE asks how expensive the market is relative to long-run, cycle-adjusted profits. It filters recessions/booms to reveal multi-year over/undervaluation.
Technical
CAPE = Real Price ÷ average(Real Earnings over the past 120 months). Computed from the Shiller dataset; months before a full 10-year window are excluded by design.
What to watch
- Relative to history (1929, 2000, 2021), where is today? Top-decile readings imply lower long-term returns.
- If CAPE and Forward P/E rise together, exuberance is broad-based; if they diverge, near-term estimates may be doing the heavy lifting.
Citations, Sources & Reuse
Last updated: … • Methodology
Bubble Tracker (site & methodology)
S&P 500 Price-to-Book
S&P 500 Forward 12M P/E
Shiller CAPE
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