Bubble Tracker
Your interactive valuation charts.
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S&P 500 Price-to-Book
See all chartsPercentiles compare today to the full history of this series.“Top decile” = higher than 90% of all past monthly values;“Top quartile” ≥ 75%;“Median” ≈ the 50th percentile;“Bottom decile” ≤ 10%.Badges are computed from the entire visible series, not just the zoomed window.
P/B shows how many dollars investors pay for each $1 of balance-sheet equity (book value).
What it shows
- Computed as index price ÷ book value per share; quarterly book value is forward-filled across months until new reports arrive.
- Gives a clean balance-sheet lens (“rich vs. net assets”) without relying on near-term earnings forecasts.
- Often steps at quarter-ends when reports land and drifts with prices between updates.
How to read it
- Rising P/B often reflects stronger expected profitability, risk appetite, or lower real yields.
- Falling P/B can flag tighter conditions or balance-sheet concerns — check whether price fell or book value rose.
- Compare with past regimes (e.g., 2000, 2021) to contextualize balance-sheet richness.
Caveats
- Intangibles (software, brands) are often expensed, understating book value and making P/B look high.
- Sector mix matters: asset-light techs carry higher P/B than asset-heavy sectors.
- Write-downs/M&A/buybacks can move book value for accounting reasons.
- Best for multi-year context, not short-term timing.
S&P 500 Forward 12M P/E
See all chartsPercentiles compare today to the full history of this series.“Top decile” = higher than 90% of all past monthly values;“Top quartile” ≥ 75%;“Median” ≈ the 50th percentile;“Bottom decile” ≤ 10%.Badges are computed from the entire visible series, not just the zoomed window.
Forward 12M P/E compares price with next-year consensus EPS; 1/P-E is the implied earnings yield.
What it shows
- Index price ÷ next-twelve-months EPS; the latest quarterly forward EPS is forward-filled to monthly.
- Moves with estimates and discount rates.
- Rule of thumb: P/E 20 ≈ 5% earnings yield versus bonds/risk premia.
How to read it
- Rising P/E with flat EPS = multiple expansion (fragile if real yields rise).
- Stable P/E with rising EPS = fundamentals doing the work.
- Benchmark against late-1990s/2021 levels and current rate backdrop.
Caveats
- Consensus methods vary across vendors; series can differ.
- Sector weight shifts change the “normal” index multiple.
- Not a short-term timer; read methodology notes for fine calls.
Shiller CAPE
See all chartsPercentiles compare today to the full history of this series.“Top decile” = higher than 90% of all past monthly values;“Top quartile” ≥ 75%;“Median” ≈ the 50th percentile;“Bottom decile” ≤ 10%.Badges are computed from the entire visible series, not just the zoomed window.
CAPE compares price with a 10-year average of real earnings to smooth cycles.
What it shows
- Real price ÷ average real earnings over the prior 120 months.
- Needs a full decade window; earliest months are excluded by design.
- Best for long-run regime context, not short-term moves.
How to read it
- High vs. history → lower average 10-year returns (all else equal).
- Rises with lower real yields or structurally high margins; compresses when supports fade.
- Triangulate with P/B and Forward P/E.
Caveats
- Levels drift with taxes, accounting, and sector mix.
- Can stay elevated/depressed for long stretches.
- Inflation/profit globalization shift anchors; compare regimes with care.
Citations, Sources & Reuse
Last updated: … • Methodology
Bubble Tracker (site & methodology)
S&P 500 Price-to-Book
S&P 500 Forward 12M P/E
Shiller CAPE
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U.S. Equity Valuations
Explore interactive charts for Price-to-Book, Forward 12M P/E, and Shiller CAPE.
Transparent Methodology
Monthly alignment with clear sources (S&P Global, Refinitiv, Shiller). No black boxes.
History in Context
Compare today’s valuations with past regimes (e.g., 2000, 2021) and spot extremes.
Start with the charts
Use the range buttons (1Y/3Y/5Y/MAX), drag-to-zoom, and the slider to explore history.
- P/B: balance-sheet lens for “rich vs. assets”.
- Forward P/E: expectations for next-year earnings.
- CAPE: cycle-adjusted valuation using 10-year real EPS.