Bubble Tracker
Equity valuations, inflation decomposition, and macro scenario analysis. Built for researchers and market practitioners.
Last updated: … • Updates
Iran/Hormuz Oil Shock Scenario Analysis
Three Brent crude scenarios (baseline $110, moderate $125, extreme $150) with component-level CPI pass-through forecasts. Calibrated to Fed Board (2023) oil-price elasticities with distributed lag weights across energy, food, shelter, and core.
S&P 500 Price-to-Book
See all chartsPercentiles compare today to the full history of this series.“Top decile” = higher than 90% of all past monthly values;“Top quartile” ≥ 75%;“Median” ≈ the 50th percentile;“Bottom decile” ≤ 10%.Badges are computed from the entire visible series, not just the zoomed window.
P/B shows how many dollars investors pay for each $1 of balance-sheet equity (book value).
What it shows
- Computed as index price ÷ book value per share; quarterly book value is forward-filled across months until new reports arrive.
- Gives a clean balance-sheet lens (“rich vs. net assets”) without relying on near-term earnings forecasts.
- Often steps at quarter-ends when reports land and drifts with prices between updates.
How to read it
- Rising P/B often reflects stronger expected profitability, risk appetite, or lower real yields.
- Falling P/B can flag tighter conditions or balance-sheet concerns — check whether price fell or book value rose.
- Compare with past regimes (e.g., 2000, 2021) to contextualize balance-sheet richness.
Caveats
- Intangibles (software, brands) are often expensed, understating book value and making P/B look high.
- Sector mix matters: asset-light techs carry higher P/B than asset-heavy sectors.
- Write-downs/M&A/buybacks can move book value for accounting reasons.
- Best for multi-year context, not short-term timing.
S&P 500 Forward 12M P/E
See all chartsPercentiles compare today to the full history of this series.“Top decile” = higher than 90% of all past monthly values;“Top quartile” ≥ 75%;“Median” ≈ the 50th percentile;“Bottom decile” ≤ 10%.Badges are computed from the entire visible series, not just the zoomed window.
Forward 12M P/E compares price with next-year consensus EPS; 1/P-E is the implied earnings yield.
What it shows
- Index price ÷ next-twelve-months EPS; the latest quarterly forward EPS is forward-filled to monthly.
- Moves with estimates and discount rates.
- Rule of thumb: P/E 20 ≈ 5% earnings yield versus bonds/risk premia.
How to read it
- Rising P/E with flat EPS = multiple expansion (fragile if real yields rise).
- Stable P/E with rising EPS = fundamentals doing the work.
- Benchmark against late-1990s/2021 levels and current rate backdrop.
Caveats
- Consensus methods vary across vendors; series can differ.
- Sector weight shifts change the “normal” index multiple.
- Not a short-term timer; read methodology notes for fine calls.
Shiller CAPE
See all chartsPercentiles compare today to the full history of this series.“Top decile” = higher than 90% of all past monthly values;“Top quartile” ≥ 75%;“Median” ≈ the 50th percentile;“Bottom decile” ≤ 10%.Badges are computed from the entire visible series, not just the zoomed window.
CAPE compares price with a 10-year average of real earnings to smooth cycles.
What it shows
- Real price ÷ average real earnings over the prior 120 months.
- Needs a full decade window; earliest months are excluded by design.
- Best for long-run regime context, not short-term moves.
How to read it
- High vs. history → lower average 10-year returns (all else equal).
- Rises with lower real yields or structurally high margins; compresses when supports fade.
- Triangulate with P/B and Forward P/E.
Caveats
- Levels drift with taxes, accounting, and sector mix.
- Can stay elevated/depressed for long stretches.
- Inflation/profit globalization shift anchors; compare regimes with care.
Inflation Analysis
Inflation Pressure Decomposition
Five-block decomposition of consumer-price pressure: trend core, housing pipeline, goods/energy, services, and money. With 12-month forecast, oil-shock scenario overlays, and historical event annotations.
U.S. Inflation Dashboard
CPI decomposition (headline, core, shelter), M2 money supply, Fed balance sheet, and equity valuations on the same synced timeline. KPI cards, policy event annotations, and interactive zoom.
Citations, Sources & Reuse
Last updated: … • Methodology
Bubble Tracker (site & methodology)
S&P 500 Price-to-Book
S&P 500 Forward 12M P/E
Shiller CAPE
Attribution & Reuse
- If you use these charts, values, or derived insights in an article, paper, dashboard, or report, please cite Bubble-Tracker.com and link back to the page you used.
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- Screenshots are welcome with attribution. For high-res exports or brand assets, contact us.
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Preview feed powers charts and may be delayed/downsampled. Full history, freshness, and CSV/API are available by request. Not investment advice.
Equity Valuations
S&P 500 P/B, Forward P/E, and Shiller CAPE with percentile bands, bubble overlays, and interactive zoom.
Inflation Decomposition
Transmission Price Index decomposes CPI pressure into five channels with forward-looking forecasts and oil-shock scenarios.
Transparent Methodology
Every data source cited, every computation reproducible. Fed Board elasticities, BLS weights, and academic references.
Historical Context
Compare today with past regimes: 2000, 2008, 2021 for valuations; 1973, 1979, 1990, 2022 for oil shocks.
Explore the platform
Interactive charts with drag-to-zoom, range selectors, and synced axes. Scenario analysis with academic calibration.
- ●Valuations: P/B, Forward P/E, CAPE with percentile context and regime comparisons.
- ●TPI: Five-block inflation decomposition with forecast and oil-shock overlays.
- ●Dashboard: U.S. CPI decomposition, M2 growth, Fed balance sheet, and shelter lag analysis with synced axes.
- ●Learn: Five progressive articles from basic inflation concepts to monetary transmission.